题目：The social welfare implications of electrification in the US residential energy market (美国住宅能源市场电气化的社会福利影响)
作者：Alexander Hill
摘要：Concerns over global climate change have led to support for household electrification to reduce CO2 emissions. However, due to the cost of mandating household electrification and the lack of an emissions-free grid, the social net benefit of this policy is unknown. Using a discrete choice empirical strategy, this paper estimates the tradeoff between household willingness to pay to avoid an electrification mandate and its environmental benefits in residential space and water heating markets. Compared with the counterfactual, the mandate has a net social cost of $47 billion annually from 2025 to 2050, largely from households in the Northeast and North Midwest.
对全球气候变化的担忧使得家庭电气化作为减少二氧化碳排放的手段获得了越来越多的支持。但由于强制家庭电气化所需的成本和当前电网并非完全零排放的现实，该政策的社会净收益尚不明确。本文采用离散选择实证策略，估算了在住宅取暖市场中，家庭为避免电气化强制令的支付意愿与其所带来的环境效益之间的权衡。与反事实情景相比，从2025年到2050年，该强制令预计将产生每年470亿美元的净社会成本，这部分成本主要由东北部和中北部的家庭承担。
原文：Hill, A. (2025). The social welfare implications of electrification in the US residential energy market. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 131, 103136.
链接：https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2025.103136
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