题目：Trade risks to energy security in net-zero emissions energy scenarios（净零排放能源情景下的贸易能源安全风险）
作者：Jing Cheng, Dan Tong, Hongyan Zhao, Ruochong Xu, Yue Qin, Qiang Zhang, Karan Bhuwalka, Ken Caldeira & Steven J. Davis
摘要：Secure access to energy services is a prerequisite to economic productivity and a chief strategic concern of national governments, yet it is unclear how the trade in fuels and critical materials in scenarios with net-zero emissions relates to energy security risks. Here we find that overall trade risks decrease in most countries (70%) in net-zero scenarios due to reduced reliance on imported fossil fuels, but trade risks to either electricity or transportation systems increase in the majority (82%) of countries that become more dependent on imported materials. Countries with abundant mineral reserves (for example, Australia and China) become much less dependent on imports, but the opposite is true of countries with large fossil fuel reserves (for example, Russia and the Middle East). We further evaluate the sensitivity of countries’ trade risks to differences in trading networks, energy systems, the material intensities of technologies and recycling rates, highlighting opportunities for technological innovation and policy changes.
安全获取能源服务是经济生产力的前提，也是各国政府的主要战略关切，但在净零排放情景下，燃料和关键材料贸易与能源安全风险的关系尚不明确。我们发现，大多数国家在净零情景下整体贸易风险下降（70%），因为对进口化石燃料的依赖减少，但大多数（82%）依赖进口材料的国家，电力或交通系统贸易风险却上升。矿产储量丰富的国家（例如澳大利亚和中国）对进口依赖大大减少，而拥有大量化石燃料储量的国家（如俄罗斯和中东）则相反。我们还进一步评估了各国贸易风险对贸易网络、能源系统、技术材料强度和回收率差异的敏感性，强调技术创新和政策变革的机会。
原文：Cheng, J., Tong, D., Zhao, H. et al. Trade risks to energy security in net-zero emissions energy scenarios. Nat. Clim. Chang. 15, 505–513 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02305-1
链接：https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-025-02305-1
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